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'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

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http://hdl.handle.net/2445/11753

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(Dipòsit Digital de la Universitat de Barcelona)

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Title:: 'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age
Subject:: Percepció del risc; Optimisme; Longevitat; Vellesa; Discapacitats; Economia de la salut; Risk perception; Optimism; Longevity; Old age; Disabled persons; Medical economics
Description:: Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.; - Les teories d'aprenentatge racional postulen que els canals d'informació i els biaixos cognitius tals com l'optimisme poden influenciar con l'individual avalua situacions no desitjades, especialment quan aquestes tenen un efecte acumulatiu. Aquest és el cas de la discapacitat en edats avançades, especialment la que es produeix condicionada a al supervivència a aquesta edat. Aquests factors s'han apuntat com a responsables d¿algunes conductes (com ara reduïda assegurança per aquestes contingències). Aquest article examina els determinants de les percepcions de risc de dependència i supervivència en edats avançades. La naturalesa acumulativa d¿aquestes percepcions es testa i alguns potencials biaixos s¿identifiquen, incloent 'l'optimisme' així com alguns determinants informacionals. La evidència empírica d¿una mostra representativa de Catalunya il·lustra aquestes efectes. Els resultats indiquen una sobreestimació significativa del riscs de discapacitat en edats avançades però no el ris de longevitat. A diferència de les percepcions de risc de longevitat, les percepcions de risc de discapcitat en edats avançades es perceben com a riscos acumulatius . Les diferències de gènere en la percepció de risc poblacional de discapacitat en edats avançades però no les individuals. Finalment, l'estat de salut actual és la principal variable que explica les diferències de percepció de risc tant individuals com poblacional.
Origin:: UB Economics – Working Papers [ERE]
Idioma:: English
Relationship:: Reproducció digital del document publicat a http://www.ere.ub.es/dtreball/E07174.rdf/view; Documents de treball (Facultat d'Economia i Empresa. Espai de Recerca en Economia), 2007, E07/174; [WP E-Eco07/174]
Author/Producer:: Costa i Font, Joan
Editor:: Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa
Rights:: cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Costa, 2007; http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/es/; info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Date:: 2010-03-18T09:51:36Z; 2007
Resource type:: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
Format:: 32 p.; 456592 bytes; application/pdf

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1. < dc:title > 'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age </ dc:title >
2. < dc:creator > Costa i Font, Joan </ dc:creator >
3. < dc:subject > Percepció del risc </ dc:subject >
4. < dc:subject > Optimisme </ dc:subject >
5. < dc:subject > Longevitat </ dc:subject >
6. < dc:subject > Vellesa </ dc:subject >
7. < dc:subject > Discapacitats </ dc:subject >
8. < dc:subject > Economia de la salut </ dc:subject >
9. < dc:subject > Risk perception </ dc:subject >
10. < dc:subject > Optimism </ dc:subject >
11. < dc:subject > Longevity </ dc:subject >
12. < dc:subject > Old age </ dc:subject >
13. < dc:subject > Disabled persons </ dc:subject >
14. < dc:subject > Medical economics </ dc:subject >
15. < dc:description > Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level. </ dc:description >
16. < dc:description > - Les teories d'aprenentatge racional postulen que els canals d'informació i els biaixos cognitius tals com l'optimisme poden influenciar con l'individual avalua situacions no desitjades, especialment quan aquestes tenen un efecte acumulatiu. Aquest és el cas de la discapacitat en edats avançades, especialment la que es produeix condicionada a al supervivència a aquesta edat. Aquests factors s'han apuntat com a responsables d¿algunes conductes (com ara reduïda assegurança per aquestes contingències). Aquest article examina els determinants de les percepcions de risc de dependència i supervivència en edats avançades. La naturalesa acumulativa d¿aquestes percepcions es testa i alguns potencials biaixos s¿identifiquen, incloent 'l'optimisme' així com alguns determinants informacionals. La evidència empírica d¿una mostra representativa de Catalunya il·lustra aquestes efectes. Els resultats indiquen una sobreestimació significativa del riscs de discapacitat en edats avançades però no el ris de longevitat. A diferència de les percepcions de risc de longevitat, les percepcions de risc de discapcitat en edats avançades es perceben com a riscos acumulatius . Les diferències de gènere en la percepció de risc poblacional de discapacitat en edats avançades però no les individuals. Finalment, l'estat de salut actual és la principal variable que explica les diferències de percepció de risc tant individuals com poblacional. </ dc:description >
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  20. < dc:subject > Vellesa </ dc:subject >
  21. < dc:subject > Discapacitats </ dc:subject >
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  1. < mods:namePart > Costa i Font, Joan </ mods:namePart >
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5. < mods:identifier type =" uri " > http://hdl.handle.net/2445/11753 </ mods:identifier >
6. < mods:abstract > Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level. </ mods:abstract >
7. < mods:abstract > - Les teories d'aprenentatge racional postulen que els canals d'informació i els biaixos cognitius tals com l'optimisme poden influenciar con l'individual avalua situacions no desitjades, especialment quan aquestes tenen un efecte acumulatiu. Aquest és el cas de la discapacitat en edats avançades, especialment la que es produeix condicionada a al supervivència a aquesta edat. Aquests factors s'han apuntat com a responsables d¿algunes conductes (com ara reduïda assegurança per aquestes contingències). Aquest article examina els determinants de les percepcions de risc de dependència i supervivència en edats avançades. La naturalesa acumulativa d¿aquestes percepcions es testa i alguns potencials biaixos s¿identifiquen, incloent 'l'optimisme' així com alguns determinants informacionals. La evidència empírica d¿una mostra representativa de Catalunya il·lustra aquestes efectes. Els resultats indiquen una sobreestimació significativa del riscs de discapacitat en edats avançades però no el ris de longevitat. A diferència de les percepcions de risc de longevitat, les percepcions de risc de discapcitat en edats avançades es perceben com a riscos acumulatius . Les diferències de gènere en la percepció de risc poblacional de discapacitat en edats avançades però no les individuals. Finalment, l'estat de salut actual és la principal variable que explica les diferències de percepció de risc tant individuals com poblacional. </ mods:abstract >
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1. < dc:title > 'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age </ dc:title >
2. < dc:creator > Costa i Font, Joan </ dc:creator >
3. < dc:subject.classification > Percepció del risc </ dc:subject.classification >
4. < dc:subject.classification > Optimisme </ dc:subject.classification >
5. < dc:subject.classification > Longevitat </ dc:subject.classification >
6. < dc:subject.classification > Vellesa </ dc:subject.classification >
7. < dc:subject.classification > Discapacitats </ dc:subject.classification >
8. < dc:subject.classification > Economia de la salut </ dc:subject.classification >
9. < dc:subject.other > Risk perception </ dc:subject.other >
10. < dc:subject.other > Optimism </ dc:subject.other >
11. < dc:subject.other > Longevity </ dc:subject.other >
12. < dc:subject.other > Old age </ dc:subject.other >
13. < dc:subject.other > Disabled persons </ dc:subject.other >
14. < dc:subject.other > Medical economics </ dc:subject.other >
15. < dcterms:abstract > Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level. </ dcterms:abstract >
16. < dcterms:abstract > - Les teories d'aprenentatge racional postulen que els canals d'informació i els biaixos cognitius tals com l'optimisme poden influenciar con l'individual avalua situacions no desitjades, especialment quan aquestes tenen un efecte acumulatiu. Aquest és el cas de la discapacitat en edats avançades, especialment la que es produeix condicionada a al supervivència a aquesta edat. Aquests factors s'han apuntat com a responsables d¿algunes conductes (com ara reduïda assegurança per aquestes contingències). Aquest article examina els determinants de les percepcions de risc de dependència i supervivència en edats avançades. La naturalesa acumulativa d¿aquestes percepcions es testa i alguns potencials biaixos s¿identifiquen, incloent 'l'optimisme' així com alguns determinants informacionals. La evidència empírica d¿una mostra representativa de Catalunya il·lustra aquestes efectes. Els resultats indiquen una sobreestimació significativa del riscs de discapacitat en edats avançades però no el ris de longevitat. A diferència de les percepcions de risc de longevitat, les percepcions de risc de discapcitat en edats avançades es perceben com a riscos acumulatius . Les diferències de gènere en la percepció de risc poblacional de discapacitat en edats avançades però no les individuals. Finalment, l'estat de salut actual és la principal variable que explica les diferències de percepció de risc tant individuals com poblacional. </ dcterms:abstract >
17. < dcterms:dateAccepted > 2010-03-18T09:51:36Z </ dcterms:dateAccepted >
18. < dcterms:available > 2010-03-18T09:51:36Z </ dcterms:available >
19. < dcterms:created > 2010-03-18T09:51:36Z </ dcterms:created >
20. < dcterms:issued > 2007 </ dcterms:issued >
21. < dc:type > info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper </ dc:type >
22. < dc:identifier > http://hdl.handle.net/2445/11753 </ dc:identifier >
23. < dc:language > eng </ dc:language >
24. < dc:relation > Reproducció digital del document publicat a http://www.ere.ub.es/dtreball/E07174.rdf/view </ dc:relation >
25. < dc:relation > Documents de treball (Facultat d'Economia i Empresa. Espai de Recerca en Economia), 2007, E07/174 </ dc:relation >
26. < dc:relation > [WP E-Eco07/174] </ dc:relation >
27. < dc:rights > http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/es/ </ dc:rights >
28. < dc:rights > info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess </ dc:rights >
29. < dc:rights > cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Costa, 2007 </ dc:rights >
30. < dc:publisher > Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa </ dc:publisher >
31. < dc:source > UB Economics – Working Papers [ERE] </ dc:source >
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  1. < dc:title > 'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age </ dc:title >
  2. < dc:creator > Costa i Font, Joan </ dc:creator >
  3. < dc:description > Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level. </ dc:description >
  4. < dc:description > - Les teories d'aprenentatge racional postulen que els canals d'informació i els biaixos cognitius tals com l'optimisme poden influenciar con l'individual avalua situacions no desitjades, especialment quan aquestes tenen un efecte acumulatiu. Aquest és el cas de la discapacitat en edats avançades, especialment la que es produeix condicionada a al supervivència a aquesta edat. Aquests factors s'han apuntat com a responsables d¿algunes conductes (com ara reduïda assegurança per aquestes contingències). Aquest article examina els determinants de les percepcions de risc de dependència i supervivència en edats avançades. La naturalesa acumulativa d¿aquestes percepcions es testa i alguns potencials biaixos s¿identifiquen, incloent 'l'optimisme' així com alguns determinants informacionals. La evidència empírica d¿una mostra representativa de Catalunya il·lustra aquestes efectes. Els resultats indiquen una sobreestimació significativa del riscs de discapacitat en edats avançades però no el ris de longevitat. A diferència de les percepcions de risc de longevitat, les percepcions de risc de discapcitat en edats avançades es perceben com a riscos acumulatius . Les diferències de gènere en la percepció de risc poblacional de discapacitat en edats avançades però no les individuals. Finalment, l'estat de salut actual és la principal variable que explica les diferències de percepció de risc tant individuals com poblacional. </ dc:description >
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  7. < dc:date > 2007 </ dc:date >
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  9. < dc:identifier > http://hdl.handle.net/2445/11753 </ dc:identifier >
  10. < dc:language > eng </ dc:language >
  11. < dc:relation > Reproducció digital del document publicat a http://www.ere.ub.es/dtreball/E07174.rdf/view </ dc:relation >
  12. < dc:relation > Documents de treball (Facultat d'Economia i Empresa. Espai de Recerca en Economia), 2007, E07/174 </ dc:relation >
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  16. < dc:rights > cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Costa, 2007 </ dc:rights >
  17. < dc:publisher > Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa </ dc:publisher >
  18. < dc:source > UB Economics – Working Papers [ERE] </ dc:source >
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